Black Box Report

....Bill Frist proclaims The Maverick is "NOT a candidate in a persistent vegetative state."

It's one thing to "shake up" a flagging campaign by moving some staff around, making strategic cuts, running a leaner, meaner campaign. But firing 50+ staffers? That's not delicate surgery, that's amputation of several major limbs. And it doesn't exactly send a positive message:

It's likely that McCain is firing at least 50 staffers to show the GOP establishment and major donors that he recognizes that there's a problem with his campaign and that he's taking steps to improve his chances. But just as April's shake-up didn't help McCain get back on track, July's will probably have about as much success.

Indeed, if the announcement was about "sending a message," it's conveying the wrong message -- McCain looks desperate and directionless today. And with a paltry $2 million cash on hand, he's not even in a position to turn things around.

Other than a snazzy art-deco-meets-imperial-stormtrooper-chic website of his, it's hard to see where all the cash went. Maybe fuel prices for the Straight Talk Express are a little steep these days:

The astonishing number is McCain's $2 million CoH. How is that possible? What has he spent $22 million dollars on? Has he even produced or run a single solitary ad? How many…staffers was he paying? What kind of caviar were they buying for lunch? That's just mismanagement on an epochal scale. This is from the guy who's supposed to be the porkbuster.

What's worse is that once that bad mojo gets some momentum, you start to look like other has-beens and never-weres:

Considering that bad news is itself a major blow that will make money even harder to raise, is this Phil Gramm '96 redux? Only where the candidate can't raise any money?

Ouch. Of course, while the media will no doubt scratch their heads over the downfall of their darling Maverick, the GOP base isn't surprised at all:

This is proof of how little the media knows. Just a few months ago they were talking about McCain as the presumptive GOP favorite. Yet anyone who had actually talked to a registered Republican knew then what everyone knows now: the Republican base has a pretty intense dislike for McCain.

So as the rubberneckers gawk at the death throes of McCain's campaign, others are already handicapping what could be a slightly smaller GOP field. From the Corner:

I think the big winner is Fred Thompson, with Mitt Romney gaining a little, too and Rudy Giuliani losing (he has always needed a large field to maintain his footing in a race where he is the odd man out ideologically).

Eh. Take it with a big chunk of salt. It's a pretty damn large field even if McCain drops out, but I still think a lot of people will be surprised if someone like Ron Paul stayed in longer.