Black Box Report

Putting out the fire with gasoline...

Something had to give, and love him or hate him, DNC Chairman Howard Dean is not a passive kind of guy. In an attempt to put a stop to the every-state-for-themselves jockeying to have the earliest - and most influential - primary, The DNC has given a very public smackdown to the Florida Democratic Party for their proposed January 29 contest. If Florida delegates go ahead with holding their primary a week earlier than they had agreed to last year in the DNC's primary schedule, then come next summer in Denver, the Florida delegates can sit by the pool or stay home for all it matters - they won't be allowed on the convention floor.

Granted, the move to shift Florida's primaries was taken by the Florida legilasture, controlled by Republicans. Florida Democrats fought the move, but to no avail. Rules are rules, and Captain's Quarters says the DNC is right to enforce them, even at their own peril:

For once, Howard Dean is right, and he's likely to pay a large price for it...The national parties have to take control over the irrational one-upmanship of the state organizations over primary schedules. Right now, the only way to do that is to enforce the national-committee rules over scheduling, and the only way to do that is to invalidate state delegations where those rules have been violated. Nothing else would be meaningful enough to put a stop to the shenanigans.

Pity he had no such words when the aforementioned GOP-controled Florida lawmakers decided to move their states' primaries up a week and the Republican National Committee chose the ineffectual measure of stripping only half of the Florida Republican Party's delegates from participating in their convention. The RNC's timid slap will not stop Republican candidates - and the almighty campaign $$$'s - from coming to their state. So while Florida may not be as fully in play during the selection for the GOP nominee, it's role in the general election will be unchanged. If the DNC gets its way, Democratic candidates will be barred from campaigning in the Sunshine state until February, giving the GOP a free run there for 5 months and conceivably tipping the state to Republicans.

But rules or no rules, The Great and Powerful Kos says there's no way the DNC will follow through:

Any such decision will never stick. Never.

Does anyone really think that Democrats will disenfranchise the delegates of a large swing state, whether it's Florida or Michigan?

The DNC is powerless. All it has is bluster. And as soon as we have a nominee, the first thing that person will do is rescind any such decision.

Yes...and so what?

Yes, the DNC just played it's highest card, and they have now engaged in a rather grand game of "chicken." They're intent was to get states to stop mucking about with their planned primary schedule. If Florida sticks to its Jan. 29 date, the DNC will turn their primary into a beauty contest; we'll see winner, but it won't make a difference. But if other states decide to call the DNC's bluff, well....Michigan, California, Pennsylvania - if other states decide to follow suit, will the DNC strip ALL of their delegates? What if they held a convention and no one came? And even if the nominee recinds the DNC's decision, that's already at least 5 months lost for the eventual Democratic contender to try and make an impression on Floridians. Are Democrats that suicidal?

If there is some way to avoid winning the White House next year, Democrats seem bent on finding it. After helping Karl Rove steal the past two Presidential contests, they will have to work harder this time to undo the Party’s advantage in the polls after all these years of Bush bungling.

But when it comes to incompetence, never count the Democrats out. If they can’t find an unelectable nominee, they can always screw up the process of selection.

Of course, if the DNC gives in and lets Florida go ahead with its date change, then their primary schedule becomes non-existent and it becomes a 50-state free-for-all. The DNC is just trying to keep itself from becoming (even more) irrelevant:

The DNC's answer to the problem that has gripped this cycle is an unnecessarily risky short-term solution to a long-term problem. These fights over delegates and primaries are happening...because the convention system itself is antiquated and out-dated. The conventions were originally designed as the places where those empowered to decide the parties' presidential nominees came together to make a decision. This power has been transferred almost exclusively to the voters back in the states. The convention is now little more than a three-day political advertisement. And yet, the convention has been retained - in large measure because it is an event that the party still actually controls. Unfortunately, control over the convention is an inefficient and unwieldy way to exercise authority over the nomination process. But it is the only power the party really has left.

Obviously, this is not just a problem for Democrats, but for the RNC as well. They may have taken the coward's way out by denying FL only half its delegates, but they have the same problem. Even if the DNC gets its way and gets Florida Democrats to engage in some sleight of hand like holding off a week before announcing their results, it still doesn't fix the larger problem:

The DNC may have put its finger in the dike for 2008, but everyone fully expects another stampede by states four years from now. The big states remain frustrated by the outsized influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, and pressure will continue to make their voices louder in the selection of the party nominees.

And that is the dirty little secret that neither national party wants to address - the stranglehold that small, sparesly populated states have over the nominee selection process. While swinging the pendulum to the opposite extreme - neutering smaller states say in the process - is just as undesireable, larger states are getting tired of being the campaign's ATM's and then getting stuck with whoever kissed the most babies in Concord, NH or Ames, IA:

I understand that the DNC has rules, and that they have reasons to want to try and reign in the states, although their continued fealty to Iowa and New Hampshire’s “right” to dictate the primary schedule continues to baffle me…Really, if they want to pander, it makes more sense to pander to Florida than it does to pander to Iowa and New Hampshire.

I must confess, I find the following funny (if not ridiculous):

Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states’ desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

Of the things that the current nomination system may be, fair isn’t one of them...At the moment the system to skewed to allow a handful of small population to make key decisions that shape the choices that the rest of the country will have in the process. Further, the rules in question have, in the past, created a situation in which large numbers of states (which really means large numbers of voters) were utterly unimportant in terms of choosing the nominees. Even now, with the mad rush to be early, the system is going to eventually produce a large number of voters who really might as well not go vote because the results will have been determined before their vote is even cast. How can that be a “fair” system? Indeed, how can that be a desirable system?

If the national parties ever wanted to look at some of the reasons why people give up party affiliation for "Independent," they might consider the way they treat millions of big state voters every four years.