Black Box Report

He was supposed to be their savior - no pun intended - but the dream of Fred Thompson turned out to be a lot more appealing than the reality for the religious right:

It turns out that Fred Thompson, who was wooed to enter the race by social conservatives unhappy with the other candidates, can't even remotely count on any help from Mr. Social Conservative himself, James Dobson of Focus on the Family.

Ooooh! I loves me a good more-conservative-than-thou catfight! What'd he say, what'd he say?

In a private e-mail obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, Dobson accuses the former Tennessee senator and actor of being weak on the campaign trail and wrong on issues dear to social conservatives.

"Isn't Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won't talk at all about what he believes, and can't speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson wrote.

"He has no passion, no zeal, and no apparent 'want to.' And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!"

Y'know, as soon as Thompson said he wasn't much of a church-goin' man, I thought that might be a problem.

It seems the religious right is slowly catching on to the fact that, election after election, their group gets pandered to and told how important they are, and how if they help elect so-and-so, then this will become the God-Fearin' Christians-Only nation they've always dreamed about. And then, inevitably, when their Republican suitor wins the White House...pffffttt!

In the past they've been sort of pragmatic, backing candidates who are able to hide the craziness enough to hold off mainstream America from talks of…replacing the constitution with the bible. But you get the sense that after being jerked around by Bush promising to end gay marriage then forgetting about it right after he was sworn in, they're looking for the real thing.

They're looking for a true believer, and given his blowing off of their Values Voters debate. Fred ain't it. But they say Fred's lazy crazy like a fox, so it might all just be according to his plan:

Former actor Fred Thompson’s campaign for the GOP Presidential nomination has either just been dealt a setback — or given a boost in its credibility, depending on a person’s political bias...

Dobson doesn't control every vote for every person who listens to him. But he does have considerable influence. On the other hand some voters will now feel they CAN support Thompson (particularly some independent voters) if Dobson has turned up his out-of-joint nose and walked away.

That may be all well and good for Fred's fortunes in the primary, but these folks are starting to look like no-shows for the general election as well, and that's not good for Republican chances of keeping the White House. Fred was supposed to be the has-a-chance-to-win candidate that would wave their flag for them. But if not Fred, then who? The pickins are getting slim:

Thompson, McCain, and Giuliani are out. I doubt (Dobson)'s going to throw his support behind a Mormon or a Catholic, so Romney and Brownback won't cut it. Mike Huckabee...certainly meets the evangelical Christian requirement, (but) has been straying from Republican talking points and sounding just a bit too populist lately.

And after Huckabee, you start going wayyyyy down the list to the single digit candidates. Which presents the religious right with a dilemma. Do they hold their nose and support a libertine who can win, or stand behind a true believer who doesn't have a prayer?:

The short-term task for the religious right is picking a credible GOP presidential hopeful, who will take their demands seriously, and have a realistic shot at taking office to implement the movement's ideas… But if the movement won't go with Thompson, who'll get the religious right's support? Therein lies the problem: these guys just don't have a candidate.

What, Alan Keyes doesn't have a shot?