Black Box Report

Bigwigs of the religious right recently convened their super-secret coalition of "influentials" and decided that if thrice-married, abortion-supporting, gay-tolerating, cross-dressing New York liberal Rudy Giuliani gets the GOP nod, then they're going to shoot the party in the foot, or maybe somewhere higher. This couldn't make some people any happier, and for good reason. Don't Republicans remember Ross Perot? Ralph Nader? Even discounting the anti-Republican mood of the general electorate, the ultra-slim margins of the last two elections should be enough to foretell the results of conservatives splitting their votes.

Or is it just Kabuki?

...everything with these people is, first and foremost, about fundraising. How better to rattle the collection plate than a sham kabuki dance on “principle” that you never intend to really follow through but, instead, will end up settling back into the GOP lockstep line after the primaries, coffers full.

And that's not even the best reason why a third-party split is unlikely to happen. This is:

If these guys get all huffy and persuade, say, Alan Keyes and Judge Roy Moore to run -- no one will vote for them. The reason can be summed in two words: Hillary Clinton. Righties would crawl through ground glass to beat her. Voting for a pro-choice guy in a dress would be nothing.

They may be crazy, but they ain't dumb. What IS likely to happen is some lucky unelectable is going to get their blessing, remain unelectable, but will bloody the heathen frontrunner:

Watch for two things...: one, the religious right may have no choice but to coalesce around a single, credible candidate, if only to block Giuliani. And two, watch for Dobson & Co. to take the gloves off and go after Giuliani relentlessly. These guys don't want to bolt for a third party; they'd much prefer to stay where they are with a nominee they can live with.

Finally...What Digby said:

A significant conservative constituency is actually threatening to run a third party candidate if they don't get their way and yet all we ever hear about is how the Democrats are being led down the path to perdition by the Move-On hippies who are pushing them to respond to the large majority of Americans who want the US to begin withdrawing from Iraq.

I think activists on both sides should stick by their principles and support candidates as they see fit. Let's see who does better next November.