Black Box Report

It's down to the wire in Iowa, and it's all over but for the horsetrading. And for the Democrats, with only the 3 frontrunners polling over 15%, John Edwards may be poised to pull off the first upset of the season:

John Edwards is said to be in the catbird's seat to finish strong in the Iowa caucuses because most polls show that he is the second choice favorite of a plurality of Iowa Democrats, and is especially strong among those Democrats – Bill
Richardson and Chris Dodd included – who, in many precincts, won’t be able to meet the viability threshold of fifteen percent.
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So you can see how, if the race is “tied” – something an entrance poll would show – Edwards has an edge if he has a better than even chance of adding caucusers to his alignment groups.

62% of voters who support someone other than Clinton, Edwards or Obama are likely to give Edwards their 2nd choice vote, which would make his smile even bigger, if that were even humanly possible. And even though Obama will be the likely recipient of Dennis Kucinich's Iowa supporters, Edwards can counter by having gotten the all-important Ralph Nader endorsement! How can he go wrong!?!? (I kid, but in a race this close, every vote counts, and it not only makes Edwards the choice of the underdog-loving far left, for whom Clinton and even Obama are too conservative, but it solidifies his status as the populist candidate in the Dem field.)

But while Edwards' campaign may take a turn for the better after Iowa, For Rudy Giuliani, the fat lady may be getting ready to sing:

In Iowa, where admittedly Rudy hasn't made much of a run at it, he now appears on track to come in last place among the major candidates. And, to be clear, I'm here defining 'major' rather generously as including Ron Paul. In other words, sixth place.

In New Hampshire, Rudy is similarly dropping like a stone. He may still come in third ahead of Mike Huckabee, though they now seem to be roughly tied there.

Nationally, Rudy appears either tied with Huckabee or in a three or four way tie with Huckabee, Romney and McCain, depending on which of the very most recent polls you look at. And expect that number (to borrow the Army aphorism) not to survive first contact with his drubbing in Iowa and New Hampshire.

For Rudy, once the clear GOP frontrunner, the longer the campaign goes on, the lower his numbers get, and Iowa could be a killer. That's how influential being the first caucus/primary is. Well, for another 24 hours, anyway:

Not to be cruel or anything, but the good people of Iowa should soak up as much of this attention as they can, because in two days America is going to go back to ignoring them again for the next four years.

Because after tomorrow, it's off to New Hampshire, where things will look much different than they do today:

By far the number one agent of change in (the New Hampshire poll) standings will be the results in Iowa. Campaigning in New Hampshire will not make much of an impact on these numbers, but the results of Iowa should have a significant impact.

Because doing well in Iowa gives you momentum - the Big "Mo" - and makes you look like a winner. Doing poorly makes you look like a mistake.