Black Box Report

Check, please!

The Iowa caucus is upon us! The first opportunity to really separate the wheat from the chaff. Democrats Richardson and Dodd, languishging in single digits, are rumored to withdraw soon. And after tomorrow, good ol' Fred Thompson may call it a day as well. Which shouldn't come as a surprise considering ol' Fred has not exactly been running a, shall we say, vigorous campaign:

(The) Country Fred Jamboree...has been kinda sorta campaigning in Iowa if by kinda sorta you mean that the only way people got to see him on TV was on TNT's Law & Order New Years Marathon and that's about it since he's running out of money.

Now comes word that Fred may drop out if he doesn't make a decent showing in Iowa which leads to the question: If Fred Thompson quits campaigning, how would we know?

Thompson's been harder to find in Iowa than a palm tree, and his poll numbers show it. Nonetheless, Byron York from The Corner spoke to Thompson campaign advisor Rich Galen, who is hotly denying the rumor:

It would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson "will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus."

The story cites "several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign." Galen told me, "I'm a Republican official in the Thompson campaign, and I'm denying it." Galen also said that no one inside the campaign was a source for the story. "I can't put enough adjectives in front of the 'deny' to accurately describe how vehemently I'm denying the story," he said.

Now, it could be that the advisor doth protest too much, or perhaps Fred's staying in, in light of a recent Zogby poll showing a late-breaking surge for him, up to 12%! The blog Outside the Beltway is skeptical:

It should be noted that Thompson's "surge" is well within the margin of error. This doesn't stop speculation that it is based on the good people of Iowa finally recognizing what a gosh darned good fella Thompson is.

Of course, it could also be that Fred's not dropping out, just applying a little reverse psychology:

One wonders if this might be some kind of rallying cry to Thompson backers to coincide with the caucuses - Vote for Fred or he'll quit! - but I suspect it will have the opposite effect. Voters will hear that Thompson is on his way out, which will dampen enthusiasm for his campaign.

Which would be fair. Fred's never had much enthusiasm for his campaign himself. After all, this is a man who just a few days ago told voters in Iowa, "I'm not particularly interested in running for president." Apparently he'd like to BE president, just not do any work for it or explain why he should get the job.