Black Box Report

In a Republican field that's been too crowded for too long, things finally look like they're thinning out. Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, both of whom needed South Carolina to remain competitive, are all but done. Even Duncan Hunter, in case you didn't know he was still in, is now out. So who is now the GOP frontrunner? If you said John McCain, there's a good chance you're not a member of the Republican base:

Mr. McCain is undoubtedly a war hero, but he is no conservative. He is barely a Republican. Mr. McCain has been an obstructionist of the conservative cause throughout his career in the Senate. And his nomination would spell the end of the Reagan coalition and probably of the GOP.

It's important to note that McCain's 2 primary wins have come largely from the help of independents, and there aren't many open primaries left. And if you want to get technical about it, Mitt Romney is actually the statistical frontrunner at this point:

With his "three golds and two silvers" and his delegate lead, Romney still looks sufficiently viable that he, not Rudy, is shaping up to be the natural "stop McCain" candidate in Florida for movement conservatives who can't stand the Arizona Senator.

McCain's so-called "maverickness" (defined here as "accessibility") may win him love letters in the media, who have practically declared him the frontrunner since his 4th place finish in Iowa, but Romney can counter that with some talking heads of his own:

I see a definite up-side for Romney — it looks like a two-man race. Romney can tell everyone in the Republican base and establishment who loathes McCain — and that’s a big group — that he’s the only thing standing between them a McCain nomination.

In a wooly contest with an ambiguous top tier, Limbaugh, DeLay, the religious right, and far-right blogs all expressed their contempt for McCain, but they divided their loyalties in a wide-open field. Now, they have a choice — and an opportunity to do something about it.

Yep. Something......weird:

The irony that so many of these people are lining up behind Mitt Romney, a guy who was a Massachusetts liberal until he started running for president, is simply bizarre.

Who said irony was dead?