Black Box Report

It's not about him anymore. He just doesn't know it yet.

For years, President Bush and his advisers expressed frustration that the White House received little credit for the nation's strong economic performance because of public discontent about the Iraq war. Today, the president is getting little credit for improved security in Iraq, as the public increasingly focuses on a struggling U.S. economy.

Atrios interjects:

But the reason people never gave Bush much credit for the economy was that for most people the economy was never that awesome. While Iraq is something that most people don't experience directly, the economy is. And if they aren't completely thrilled about it, there's probably a reason.

Back to the Post:

That is the problem Bush faces as he prepares to deliver his seventh and probably final State of the Union address tonight. For the first time in four years, he will come before Congress able to report some progress in tamping down violence in Iraq. Yet the public appears to have moved on from the war -- and possibly from Bush himself.

To follow up on Dr. Atrios' point, as the economy for most people was never as great as the administration said it was, the "improved security in Iraq" may not be the festival of ponies they're advertising it as either.

And did Mr. Abramowitz read his own article? The public "appears" to have "possibly" moved on from Bush? A mere 6 paragraphs later, he answers his own question, citing Bush's low low low approval rating, 32%. Yeah, I'd say they're over him. And if you wanted to know why, Mr. Abramowitz provides the answer in paragraph #5:

White House officials and their allies argue that the turmoil in the nation's housing and financial markets provides Bush a new opportunity to lead...

No. Stop right there. Watching the fire spread from the fireplace to the rug to the curtains until the whole house is ablaze AND THEN offering to get a bucket of water is NOT leadership. The time to lead would've been BEFORE the mortgage crisis exploded, BEFORE the economy needed a stmulating package. That opportunity has long passed.

But that won't stop the president this evening from taking to the airwaves and offering to close the barn door, sans cheval.

A president's final State of the Union address is generally seen as the official starting point for lame duck status, so expectations are even lower than usual. But Larry Kudlow, blogging at the Corner, urges President Bush to chin up, Buckaroo:

While all is never perfect, you have delivered on the most fundamental hopes for the nation: peace and prosperity. America’s greatness is grounded on optimism and freedom. You have spoken loudly in support of these great themes. You have succeeded to a far-greater degree than the intellectual elites will ever admit. Stay the course, Mr. President. Stay optimistic.

Puh-wha? Peace? We're at war in two countries right now, and Bush is hankering for a third. Prosperity? Mortgage Crisis! Optimism and Freedom? We practice torture and spy on our own citizens! I'm not sure what country Mr. Kudlow is talking about. Perhaps it's the one inside the president's bubble:

Bush is likely going to praise the bipartisan stimulus deal as a cure-all while continuing to tell us that America has been doing exactly the right thing for the past seven years--fighting the terrorists over there so we don't have to fight them here. No bad decisions were ever made, no recession is occurring, no heads need roll.

That's to be expected from this dead-ender president.

We will see tonight the usual predictable moments. The state of our union will be called strong. New Orleans and Katrina will be mentioned only in passing if at all. Democrats will be attacked for ______, ______ and ______, followed by a plea that they should all "work together". At least one truly nutty, he-said-what? proposal will be floated, i.e. Mars. And of course, the special guest stars:

Chances are he'll have some white guy from a red state who started a business in 2007 and hired two black guys sitting next to Laura Bush, right there in the seat Ahmad Chalabi used to occupy. He'll point to that guy, who created two whole jobs, as emblematic of the success of endless tax cuts for giant corporations like Countrywide. Maybe he'll even bring back that "uniquely American" woman with the disabled son who works three jobs -- assuming she can get the time off.

Tonight's speech will have it all: the disconnect, the petulance, the duplicity. The mangled syntax. But one thing it won't have? A reason for anyone to watch:

Tune in tonight to Bush's final State of the Union address to hear what a president with an overall 32% approval rating, and only 30% on Iraq and 28% on the economy, has to say about issues no one with a functioning brain trusts him to competently address.

Yeah, but some of us will watch anyway, if for no other reason than it's the last time we'll have to watch him do this.

All last year, even as late as December, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a comfortable lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina. A few weeks and a good deal of racially charged rhetoric later, and the results? The Illinois bantam beat Clinton like the proverbial government mule:

Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton so badly in South Carolina it may spawn some new kind of Southern colloquialism. When Clemson spanks an opponent by five touchdowns it will be called an Obama. Fans will taunt the losing team as they walk off the field by making an "O" against their foreheads.

How bad was it?

Obama - 295,091 - 55%
Clinton - 141,128 - 27%
Edwards - 93,552 - 18%
Kucinich - 551 - 0%

He won with women, he won with men. He won the black vote by wide margins, and a sizeable chunk of the white vote. He won in every age group except for seniors. He won more votes in South Carolina than McCain and Huckabee combined. Obviously this kind of shellacking got under the Clintons' skin, leading potential first Husband Bill to suggest that, like Jesse Jackson had done in the past, Obama only won in South Carolina because he was the black candidate. This went over like a lead balloon, causing some to worry the Clinton campaign is burning its bridges with the black community, not to mention Democratic voters:

After a very tense period where the Democrats were battling on the precipice of destruction along racial lines, just after we thought that at least the actual candidates could put these tensions away (even if the media seemed dead set to fixate upon them), Bill makes a statement so unabashedly racially charged my jaw simply dropped when I heard him say it. And keep in mind, I’ve always defended him on accusations of trying to stir racial tensions in the past...

That kind of comment may fade away for some, but I know I’m not the only one who will carry that little nugget with me at least until our next president is selected, possibly even longer.

To their credit, the Clintons seem to recognize this, and have promised Bill will be a kinder, gentler campaigner for his wife from here on out. Not that the former president is known for his self-control:

As much as I respect and admire Bill Clinton's many, many strengths, he's tough to muzzle. If the plan is to keep him on the campaign trail, but as a positive advocate instead of an attack dog, there's always the risk that BC will get asked a question about Obama, and he just won't be able to help himself.

If they run passive, the Clintons run the risk of getting swamped by what increasingly looks like a capital-M Movement for Obama. But if they let Bill continue to take pages form the Karl Rove playbook, they threaten to damage not just their campaign but their party as a whole. The Clintons have engendered much affection and respect within the party and within the black community, but even for the man called "the first black president," there may be a limit to the goodwill. Case in point, the woman who gave Bill that moniker is now endorsing Obama. And the fallout from the Clintons' hardball tactics may be spreading even wider. Following JFK daughter Caroline Kennedy's endorsement yesterday, Sen. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama may be the most telling:

Kennedy chairs the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions atop both Clinton and Obama. He is (also) the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee...that has supposedly served as Clinton's home school for acquiring her widely praised military expertise. He is, in other words, not just the nation's most trusted and revered Democrat, but also, coincidentally, the one who's had the greatest opportunity to see the young candidates at work. And he came away supporting Obama.

All along, Hillary's campaign has billed her as the standard-bearing establishment Democratic candidate, but the Democratic establishment may be having other ideas.