Black Box Report

Super Dupercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday is upon us, and it's a footrace to finish line for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And whether it was a bounce from South Carolina or his recent strong debate performance, it's Obama riding the momentum while Hillary treads water:

Another national poll -- this one from Pew -- shows Obama closing on Hillary in the run-up to Super Tuesday. Here are the numbers, as compared with this same poll earlier in January:

Clinton 46% (before 46%)
Obama 38% (before 31%)

Hillary's non-movement suggests that much of Edwards' support has gone to Obama and the remainder of it remains undecided, the pollsters suggest. Obama jumped seven points in the last few weeks nationally to close within single digits of Hillary.

What's more, the poll shows that Obama's national support has jumped an astonishing 20 points since December.

It could be the rise of the "Obamacans" (sounds like a bad science fiction flick), or just the rise of an "Obama-nation" (which also sounds like a bad B-movie):

Obama has implemented a 53 congressional district strategy here, something that's never been tried in California before, that creates not only (district)-level mini organizations, but also precinct-level and community level organizations…Obama often says in his speeches that "change happens not from the top down but from the bottom up" and his campaign, at least here in California, seems to embody that.

And it's paying off. Or at least it might, if Obama doesn't run out of time first:

Hillary's best hope at this point appears to ride out the clock..For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close...Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that...then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina. Or to the convention.

And for all the talk of a Republican brokered convention, it's actually the Democrats who may have cut some deals come August.

It didn't have to be that way, either. Here in her own back yard of the NY / NJ / CT tri-state area, Hillary's having to fight for every edge. Which, of course, led me to this: The big headline from the neighboring Nutmeg state today is, once again, the tears of a Clinton:

Yep, it's official. Hillary Clinton is running to be Crybaby-in-Chief. According to the Tribune Co.'s politics blog, the Swamp, Clinton teared up after a heartfelt introduction by a former colleague at the Yale Child Study Center in New Haven, where she worked in college. The emotional speech led "Clinton's eyes to fill with tears, which she wiped out of her left eye," reads the report (so clinical). "Well, I said I would not tear up; already we're not exactly on the path," Clinton said immediately after. AHEM. Now, to be fair to Clinton, who after all is human no matter what people say, hearing a tearful tribute to you from a former mentor is exactly the kind of thing that would choke up nearly anybody. But it won't be lost on the press that she happened to cry just on the eve of an important primary vote, and that she happened to do so in a state where she has been losing her edge. After all, she is four points behind Obama in Connecticut in some polls after this weekend. We don't think Hillary was dumb enough to think that crying again would be to her political advantage — the last thing she wants to be seen as is weak. But there's no question that people will say it was a ploy. Come on, lady. You've been through a hell of a lot that was worse than this. At least wait until after tomorrow. If you lose Super Tuesday, then nobody will blame you for crying.

"...to be fair to Clnton..." Heh. This is funny because Hillary is connving, emotionless android who is also shrill. Or because she's a woman, and you know how they can be. Or maybe it's both, I'm not sure. Maybe someday our pundits can tell us exactly how and when it's acceptable for a female politician to show emotion.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Obama's supporters are hoping to give Ms. Clinton something to actually cry about:

Contrary to many pundits' expectations, New Jersey's Democratic primary may be one of the more competitive in the nation. Obama has closed the gap in several recent polls and Clinton has been stuck in the high 40's since last August...Whoever wins, it looks like turnout will be much higher than in years past.

And while Clinton holds a more comfortable lead in her home state, it won't be as decisive as she would like:

(T)he polls in New York are wrong. It is much closer than they are saying. Obama will be very competitive in the city of New York. Expect a record turnout (for a presidential primary) in every state. Hillary will probably win her N.Y. home state (as she should), but Obama will leave here (NY) with a bunch of delegates. He will pick up lots of delegates in the north and eastern corridors from Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut to Massachusetts. I expect him to win at least two of these states.

...I expect that at the end of the night, both camps will pick up good delegates; but by Wednesday morning: Barack Hussein (Barry) Obama will be still leading the count- as he is right now. Do note however, that I am not factoring-in the “super-delegates”; there are different dynamics to those delegates (in terms of commitment) which will play out later...

Bottom line, even if she wins tomorrow in narrow victories, Hillary let Obama make it a game in at least three states she should have had locked up a long time ago