Black Box Report

Well, that was exciting...

While a direct analogy to the recent Giants-Patriots upset doesn't fit here, last night's Super Tuesday contest (at least on the Democratic side) more resembled a good Super Bowl between two evenly matched teams, rather than a blowout that's over midway into the second quarter.

The Democratic race was tighter than Dick Cheney's smile, and when the dust cleared only a handful of delegates separated the two candidates. This, of course, is bad news for Democrats. And the fact that blacks voted overwhelmingly for Obama (apparently he IS black enough), while Asians and Latinos went for Hillary, apparently this is also bad news for Deomcrats:

Exit polling for Super Tuesday contests show a growing trend towards division by ethnicity among Democrats. With the race as tight as it is, the identity politics that the party has fostered over the years has now become one of the points of division. If the primaries continue to deliver mixed results, this could provide some fireworks.

Hmmm. Sounds ominous. Or not. Because, while Clinton may have saome work ahead of her repairing her relationship with the black community thanks to some ill-chosen words from members of her campaign (including her own husband), there's no reason to think any ethnic demographic is going to throw a temper tantrum and sit out come November. At the end of the day, they're all still voting for Democrats, and things aren't quite as divided as they may seem:

Primary outcomes often turn on those people who made their decisions within the last three days before the vote. According to the exit polls, Obama and Clinton are essentially splitting those voters, with 47 percent going for Obama and 46 percent for Clinton.

There's no doubt Democrats are torn between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But the early exit polls show they are not bitterly divided: 72 percent of Democrats said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the party's nomination, while 71 percent say the same about Obama.

More than just because it's Bush's final year in office, there's a reason why Democrats are turning out in record numbes, and doing so with a spring in their step and a song in their hearts:

That's what I see when I talk to actual Democrats, particularly those who don't spend all their time on the Internet. Not only do Democrats like both candidates, not only do they think they are going to get to vote FOR someone instead of AGAINST the Republican this year, but the primary is improving that view.

And don't think Republican supporters aren't noticing this massive enthusiasm gap. They are:

The real story of the night, when you look at their rallies and their turn-out numbers, is that the Dems have two strong candidates either of whom could lead a united party to victory. Forget the gaseous platitudes: in Dem terms, their choice on Super Duper Tuesday was deciding which candidate was Super Duper and which was merely Super. Over on the GOP side, it was a choice between Weak & Divisive or Weaker & Unacceptable. Doesn't bode well for November.

Unless of course, you plan on voting for a Democrat.

On the other side of the aisle, as you can imagine, things are considerably less sanguine. The "McCain Derangement Syndrome" epidemic continues unabated. Arch-conservative Rush Limbaugh spent all last week talking smack about John McCain; religious right leader James Dobson said he'd sit out if McCain got the nod; even Ann Coulter said she'd sooner vote for Hillary Clinton! Meanwhile, Romney supporter Hugh Hewitt was liveblogging the returns last night and must have been well into denial, and possibly a second bottle of scotch, when he wrote this while waiting for the West coast results:

It is stunning that Fox cannot call Arizona for John McCain. In the very unlikely event that McCain loses his home state, I don't think his campaign could recover any more than Romney could survive a loss in Massachusetts or Huckabee a loss in Arkansas.

Given the Rush blast, the Dobson declaration, and Huck's strength in the south, McCain can't be considered a frontrunner by any conventional standard.

All eyes on California.

Which McCain won. And Arizona too. I'm not sure if Hugh is aware that McCain is leading in both the number of states won and the total delegate count, which is the only standard that matters. And he's doing it primarily with the help of moderates and independents. To his credit, conservative James Joyner recognizes this, and considers it a dire omen for his kind:

So, we have two countervailing trends:

- Conservatives prefer Romney over McCain, hands down.
- McCain is winning Republican primaries against Romney.

This, incidentally, despite Romney having outspent McCain by ridiculous margins in television advertising.

What is one to conclude from this?

Perhaps “conservatives” are now a minority, even among Republican primary voters?
(SNIP)
The Conservative Movement has morphed from a handful of intellectual true believers trying to shape the debate into something approaching a civil religion with loyalty tests and a clericy that has the power to excommunicate.

John McCain was part of the 1980 wave that rolled into Congress on Ronald Reagan’s coattails. Indeed, McCain was among those Reagan was honored to stand with at 1974’s CPAC convention. But someone with an 82 percent lifetime ACU rating is considered a traitor to the cause. Much better, apparently, to flip 180 degrees on election eve and spout the right Party Line talking points.

Conservatives a minority within the GOP? I'm not so sure about that, but if not a minority, then at least fractured and ineffectual. Reformed Republican John Cole says the hardcore rightwingers have only themselves to blame for the rest of the party turning towards the center:

I believe moderate conservatives are getting sick to death of getting talked down to by these clowns...My feeling is that the far right is going to become very marginalized in this election which, one can hope, will cause them to re-evaluate how they’ve behaved over the past 7 years (ok, I actually chuckled and laughed at myself when I wrote that.)

Tbogg even gives them a name:

I guess we can call them Coyote Conservatives; those who chewed off their arms in order to get away from John McCain and now wonder why he never calls.

Tomorrow, John McCain will appear at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where he's expected to make a peace offering. It's uncertain whether conservatives there willl accept. It's also uncertain whether McCain will care.

Laissez les bon temps roulez!