Black Box Report

So, who wants a job, as John Nance Garner put it, that's "not worth a bucket of warm [spit]?" Quite a few people, actually. The office of Vice President of the United States has gone from being, in John Adams' time, "the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived" to a fourth branch of government, accountable to no one, that plays by its own rules.

Pretty sweet gig, huh?

More than just ribbon cuttings, diplomat schmoozing, outing CIA agents and planning WWIV, the most tantalizing aspect of being Vice President is you have the inside track to your party's nomination should everything go well for eight years*. The fundraising practically takes care of itself; on the job training for the big chair; and you get to say the things to your political opponents that your boss can't say for not seeming "presidential."

So with the clock ticking towards both parties' conventions, it's time to look at who wants to be the co-pilot of the Straight Talk Express.

Last week, the McCain campaign, with an assist from Bob Novak, floated the rumor they were ready to announce any moment now, so stop paying attention to Obama and those hundreds of thousands of cheering Germans! Look at me! But of course that didn't happen, and Novak was left to console himself by running over a pedestrian.

As anticipation cranked up over when McCain would announce, the list of who he would announce got a little shorter. Rising GOP star, Governor Bobby Jindal took himself out of contention, saying he already had the job he wants (presumably he meant Governor of Louisiana, not professional exorcist).

Given McCain's sluggish fundraising and less-than-vigorous image, Beltway insiders say former rival Mitt Romney is near the top of the short-list. The Mason Conservative approves:

(Romney) is an exceptional choice in many respects, including bringing in a national figure to the ticket...He has also made all the right moves since leaving the race...becoming a vocal surrogate for McCain among conservatives...They differ, yes, but Romney seems to the embodiment of the compromise many Republicans have made with McCain.

The Sunshine Boys

But while Hugh Hewitt and Kathryn Jean Lopez are already swooning at the idea of Romney back on the national ticket, other conservatives are less than enthusiastic:

While choosing Romney to be his running mate would make Washington journalists happy, it would be nothing short of political suicide for McCain....
......
Romney's fans on the right like to believe that Romney lost because Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson helped carve up the conservative vote, but it was only because of Romney's weakness among conservatives that either of them had an opening.

Although he presented himself as a full-spectrum conservative, Romney faced his share of detractors within each branch of the conservative movement. There were economic conservatives who opposed his universal health-care plan in Massachusetts, social conservatives who didn't think his conversion on abortion was sincere, and national security conservatives who had doubts about his lack of experience in foreign affairs.
......
To the extent that conservatives did rally around Romney toward the tail end of his campaign, it was mainly as a last ditch effort to prevent McCain from becoming the nominee. This is obviously now moot.

And how do liberals feel about the prospect of McCain/Romney '08?

MITTENS!!

OHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASE

Because if there's anyone that flip-flops more than John McCain, it's Mitt Romney.

Blogger John Cole is convinced McCain will pick Jesus' Own Candidate, Mike Huckabee:

I know all the bobbleheads are talking about Pawlenty or Crist for McCain as VP, but for some reason I still think he is going to pick Huckabee. I think people are radically underestimating how important it is for McCain to be surrounded by people he likes...That is why I think he is going to choose Huckabee. He is comfortable with him, and with McCain, that is all that matters.

Meanwhile, the boys over at Powerline think McCain should go with someone with a little less baggage:

He should forget about trying to make a major splash with his selection for VP...and make his decision on the basis of credentials, respect and affinity. This, I assume, is what McCain wants to do anyway.

Who benefits from this approach?...Perhaps Tim Pawlenty. He's a bit of a nearly man himself in that I suspect he would help McCain nearly carry Minnesota. But Pawlenty has no apparent downside the way Romney, Huckabee, Ridge, Jindal, and others do...McCain named Pawlenty cochair of his campaign last year and we have every reason to believe that he thinks highly of him.

Indeed, the Minnesota governor's stock is on the rise among conservatives, token and otherwise:

I think Pawlenty is the most likely choice. Second choice is Romney, after very loud teeth-gnashing from McCain. You'll just be able to feel the love at the convention...Third choice is Charlie Crist. Of course, now that I've gone on record, McCain will probably pick...someone else no one is discussing.

Oh yes, I almost forgot. Newly married Florida governor Charlie Crist has also been mentioned as a potential running mate for the Republican nominee....

Not Gonna Happen.

But what about the unexpected choices? All those somebodies that no one is currently talking about? RCP gives the rest fo the field 10-1 odds:

We think there could still be a surprise or two left up McCain's sleeve. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is in Minnesota talking him up...Senator Joe Lieberman would be an off-the-wall pick to counter Obama picking, say, Nebraska's Chuck Hagel. When you need the news coverage, as McCain does, (their) odds go way up.

.......McCain/Lieberman '08???

The Dream Team

OHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASE

BLACK BOX PREDICTION:

The first rule of picking a VP: First, do no harm. And to this extent, the Powerline boys got it right. While each of the more well known names brings something tangible to the table for McCain, they each bring too much baggage that outweighs their benefits. In this sense, Tim Pawlenty is liked by the (religious) right people, he's a red governor in a blue state for independent appeal, and as John Cole correctly pointed out, McCain likes surrounding himself with people who like (or at least flatter) him. As vanilla as they come, Pawlenty has no obvious hamstrings, although a VP announcement would have his closet stuffed with more skeleton-snooping journalists and oppo-researchers faster than you could say "Monkey Business." But he's safe, and given how well the Republican brand is regarded these days, for McCain, that's about as good as he can do.

As Good as it Gets

[* Unless you have a popularity approaching single digits, 50% lower than your historically unpopular boss and it's pretty clear the public would actually prefer a bucket of warm spit over you.]