Black Box Report

Making ALL Democrats happy is like herding cats; almost impossible and arguably not worth the effort. Something for Barack Obama to keep in mind when selecting a running mate, as almost all the names on his short-list have cons as well as pros. And at the top of that short list seems to be Tim Kaine:

Kaine would reinforce Obama’s qualities — they’re both young, smart, committed Christians, who don’t much care for the traditional ways of doing things in Washington.

What are the downsides? For one thing, there would be plenty of questions about Kaine’s experience in government. He’s worked his way up the ladder — four years as the mayor of Richmond, four years as Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor, and two-and-a-half years as governor — but by some measurements, that may not be considered a lengthy record.

On a related note, Kaine’s foreign policy experience is limited.

Putting aside Kaine's support for the Iraq War and views on abortion in line with George W Bush, there's certainly no danger of Kaine upstaging Obama on the stump. His previous instance of national exposure was giving the Democratic response to a State of the Union address a couple of years ago. To say it was painful to watch the Eyebrow of Doom in action is an understatement.

For a VP pick with more experience, TalkLeft suggests either Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh or Delaware's Joe Biden:

Biden and Bayh are longtime Washington figures...I think it is Kaine UNLESS Obama decides he needs "experience" in the VP slot...Between Bayh and Biden, it is true that Biden is gaffe prone, but he is an effective attack dog with a resume that allows him to attack John McCain on foreign policy. If (this) is what Obama decides he needs for his VP, I think Biden will be his choice.

If politicians were ice cream, Evan Bayh is practically the definition of "vanilla," while Smilin' Joe Biden is Ben and Jerry's "Everything But the Kitchen Sink." The Delaware senator is an effective pol and strong on foreign policy, but the chances of his mouth taking the Obama campaign far off course are huge. And let's not forget the Bush-Biden Bankruptcy Bill, for which many Democrats have yet to forgive him for.

Bayh, on the other hand, wouldn't make the waves Biden would and he's reliably liberal on most social issues. On the surface, there's a lot to like about Indiana's junior senator:

Bayh is super-popular in Indiana and could very well tip the state blue, he is another young and telegenic figure to add to the campaign, and he is a moderate centrist known for straddling the political divide on a number of issues.

Helping to foster an economic surplus for Indiana doesn't hurt either. And Lee Hamilton certainly seems to approve of the guy:

"Evan has a lot of experience," said Lee H. Hamilton, a former House member from Indiana and a respected Democratic elder. "He has got Hollywood good looks, and he speaks well. He would be very loyal."

Perhaps Obama could see his way to giving this nice Irish Setter Hoosier a home?

But then there's that "moderate centrist" bit. That should set off warning signals, because 99% of the time it's used as a beard for Republican-enabling Democrats:

Mr. Bayh's support of authorizing force in Iraq stands in sharp contrast to Mr. Obama's oft-stated view that he showed the good judgment to oppose the conflict from the start. After his vote, Mr. Bayh in early 2003 joined Mr. McCain as an honorary co-chairman of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which made regime change in Iraq its central cause.

"He was not only wrong, he was aggressively wrong," said Tom Andrews, national director of the Win Without War coalition, referring to Mr. Bayh. "In my view, he would contradict if not undermine the Obama message of change, turning a new page on foreign policy and national security."

And that, my friends, is not change you can believe in:

One key to Obama's candidacy has been a general refusal to let the terms of the foreign policy debate be dictated by the GOP and a willingness to challenge Republican frames on national security. Bayh, by contrast, is a darling of the class of Democrats who leap through GOP frames whenever Republicans say "jump," like so many trained seals jumping through hoops.

When you lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas, and in a close race, Obama can't afford to scratch. Or to pick someone who's currently repeating the same mistakes with Iran.

Bayh and Biden are both are consummate DC insiders. The outsider choices are the aforementioned Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius:

Sebelius and Kaine are both governing choices, not campaign choices. They're not going to match Obama's enthusiasm levels...(or) do all that well at the VP debates...But they are solid; they are centrist-in-style; they are Washington outsiders; they know how to balance budgets and deal with Republicans.

A female VP not named Clinton? I'm sure her supporters will take that well. And so,...you knew it was coming..."Why not Hillary?"

I have asserted on numerous occasions that Hillary will not be Obama's running mate. And yet...It's not like any of the other apparent contenders are obvious choices (or would be perfect picks)...Of course, one can make a compelling and perhaps convincing case against Hillary...But I've warmed to her again since the primaries ended, and I think the case for her has gotten more compelling, not less, with time.

One big problem there? His name is Bill.

Bottom line, some Democrats aren't going to be thrilled no matter who Obama picks, as none of the contenders seems to be that perfect match. So go ahead and pick and send me the text message. With the convention a week or so away...tick tock. Time's a-wastin.

BLACK BOX PREDICTION: None of the Above